Ballon d’Or 2024 Power Rankings: Vinicius Jr set to pip Rodri to Golden Ball as Jude Bellingham counts the cost of an underwhelming second half of the season

After a season headlined by him finally getting his hands on the World Cup, Lionel Messi took home his eighth Ballon d’Or after picking up the 2023 prize in Paris back in October. The footballing world has long since moved on, though, and debate has raged over the identity of the 2024 winner ever since the spring.

It was an intense race. Along with the usual domestic ups and downs, 2023-24 was a campaign that saw the majority of the globe’s best players taking part in international tournaments, including the European Championship and Copa America.

So after a year that was defined by the battle between Messi’s tournament success for Argentina and Erling Haaland’s season-long superiority at Manchester City, how much of a bearing on the 2024 Ballon d’Or race will those international competitions have?

GOAL has been here every step of the way to track the contenders for the biggest individual prize the game has to offer. So who do we think will come out on top? With the nominees all confirmed, here’s how we see things playing out at the ceremony in Paris on Monday, October 28..

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  15Dani Olmo (Barcelona)

  In 2023-24: 13 goals, seven assists. Won Euro 2024 & DFL-Supercup.

  Dani Olmo didn’t even make it into Spain’s starting line up at Euro 2024 until the semi-finals, but the playmaker still managed to play a pivotal role for La Roja as they triumphed in Germany. He tallied three goals and two assists over the course of the tournament, earning him a share of the Golden Boot, though perhaps his most pivotal moment came when he cleared Marc Guehi’s header off the line in the closing stages of the final.

  Olmo’s superb tournament came off the back of an up-and-down season at RB Leipzig, which began with him scoring a hat-trick in the DFL-Supercup final but saw his game-time restricted by injuries. Regardless, his Euros heroics look earned him a big-money move to Barcelona, and he now has the chance to take his career to the next level over the coming years.

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    14Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa)

    In 2023-24: 27 clean sheets. Won Copa America.

    Ballon d’Or voters are always keen to ensure a couple of goalkeepers make the final shortlist, and yet again Emiliano Martinez finds himself at the front of the shot-stopper queue after another memorable campaign. The Argentina No.1 played a pivotal role in Aston Villa’s ascension into the Premier League’s top four, and ensured he will play Champions League football for the first time in a decade.

    Yet again, though, Martinez saved his best performances for the international arena. He conceded just once in six games as La Albiceleste won the Copa America – his third major trophy since making his international debut in 2021 – with his best performance coming in the quarter-final win over Ecuador, when he again showed off his penalty-saving ability by keeping out two spot-kicks in the shootout.
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    13Erling Haaland (Manchester City)

    In 2023-24: 45 goals, six assists. Won Premier League, Club World Cup & UEFA Super Cup.

    Haaland could barely have done more to win the 2023 Ballon d’Or and yet still came up just short, so could he get over the hump this time around? The answer is almost certain to be ‘no’, as despite his fine goal-scoring record, he endured some forgettable performances in 2024. He still ended the campaign with a league title after claiming the Premier League Golden Boot, but going out of the Champions League in the quarter-finals is likely to prove costly to his Golden Ball hopes.

    That is because of the biggest obstacle that was already in Haaland’s way, which is that he again missed the big summer tournament after Norway failed to qualify for Euro 2024. There was always a chance that if other contenders shone in Germany, then Haaland’s potential heroics might be forgotten come voting time. As it is, they will merely push him further down the final rankings.

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    12Nico Williams (Athletic Club)

    In 2023-24: 11 goals, 25 assists. Won Euro 2024 & Copa del Rey.

    Williams’ performances in 2023-24 largely went unnoticed outside of Spain, but the Athletic Club winger proved to be one of the most dangerous attacking threats in La Liga, while he saved some of his best performances for the Copa del Rey, as he helped bring the trophy back to Bilbao for the first time in 40 years.

    The wideman carried that form into Euro 2024, where he was one of the most electrifying players in Spain’s mightily impressive side. His displays – which included an excellent opening goal in the final – did not earn him a big-money transfer in the end, but should push him close to the Ballon d’Or top 10 when all is said and done.

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    11Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen)

    In 2023-24: 21 goals, 21 assists. Won Bundesliga & DFB-Pokal.

    Bayer Leverkusen’s 52-match unbeaten domestic run underpinned what was a truly remarkable season that saw Xabi Alonso’s side celebrate the club’s first-ever Bundesliga title with an invincible campaign before backing that up with a DFB-Pokal triumph. They did, however, miss out on the Europa League after losing to Atalanta in the final.

    Despite that, Ballon d’Or voters will be keen to reward Alonso’s most important players, and few – if any – had better campaigns than Wirtz, whose hat-trick against Werder Bremen in April put the seal on their title win. The playmaker’s form since recovering from a serious knee injury has been superb, and is likely to earn him a £100-million-plus move over the next 12 months.

    He finished his season with goals that book-ended Germany’s run to the quarter-finals at Euro 2024, and while he slipped out of the line up during the knockout rounds, he still showed why he should be among the top Ballon d’Or contenders.

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    10Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)

    In 2023-24: 10 goals, 18 assists. Won Euro 2024.

    Barcelona may have endured a trophy-less season packed with yet more off-the-field drama, but the emergence of teenager Yamal as perhaps their best player gave the Blaugrana hope for the future. The winger set record after record in La Liga, and looks to be the next generational talent to have emerged from La Masia.

    His performances for Spain at Euro 2024, meanwhile, introduced the teenager to a wider audience, as he picked up the Young Player of the Tournament prize after providing a tournament-leading four assists, as well as a memorable goal in La Roja’s semi-final win over France that cemented his status as the game’s next superstar.
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    9Phil Foden (Manchester City)

    In 2023-24: 28 goals, 12 assists. Won Premier League, Club World Cup & UEFA Super Cup.

    As Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland missed chunks of the season through injury, Foden stepped up in spectacular fashion for City and enjoyed the best campaign of his already illustrious career to date.

    He scored two Premier League hat-tricks after the turn of the year, as well as a stunning brace on the final day to seal a fourth-successive domestic title for Pep Guardiola’s side. His superb strike at Santiago Bernabeu against Real Madrid, however, ended up counting for nothing as City crashed out of the Champions League on penalties in the quarter-finals.

    Disappointingly, the Premier League Player of the Year didn’t quite carry that form into Euro 2024, with Foden’s struggles to make an impact in an England shirt continuing in Germany despite the Three Lions’ run to the final. Any chance of him properly challenging for the Ballon d’Or ended with those displays.

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    8Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)

    In 2023-24: 52 goals, 14 assists.

    Kane’s move to Bayern was meant to put him in a spot where he could finally end the wait for a first trophy of his career, but the Bavarians finished the season without any silverware after surrendering the Bundesliga title to Bayer Leverkusen and losing out to Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-final.

    Kane did score at a record-breaking rate and averaged more than a goal a game in the league for the deposed champions. However, those exertions took a lot out of the England captain, and he looked laboured at Euro 2024 despite earning a share of the Golden Boot with his three goals.
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    7Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid)

    In 2023-24: 52 goals, 21 assists. Won Ligue 1, Coupe de France & Trophee des Champions.

    This was the year when the saga finally ended, as 2023-24 was Mbappe’s final Ballon d’Or campaign as a Paris Saint-Germain player, with his protracted move to Real Madrid being made official in July.

    Mbappe’s goals sealed a third-successive Ligue 1 title for the Parisians, but the forward’s dream of bringing European success to Parc des Princes was ended with defeat in the Champions League semi-finals to Borussia Dortmund.

    France’s underwhelming performances at Euro 2024 eventually led to further disappointment for Mbappe, as the forward struggled to deal with a broken nose and Didier Deschamps negative tactics before Les Bleus eventually came up short in the semi-finals.

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    6Toni Kroos (retired)

    In 2023-24: One goal, 12 assists. Won Champions League, La Liga & Supercopa de Espana.

    At 34, Kroos rolled back the years for Real Madrid in what turned out to be his last-ever campaign following his shock decision to retire. That said, his excellent performances only begun to be spoken about by a wider audience after his masterful showings against Bayern Munich in Madrid’s victorious Champions League semi-final.

    He backed that up by providing the assist for Los Blancos’ opener as they secured European glory to go with their domestic title. He was also tempted out of international retirement by Julian Nagelsmann, with the metronomic midfielder putting in superb showings at Euro 2024 before Germany crashed out in the quarter-finals to bring the curtain down on Kroos’ illustrious career.
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    5Lautaro Martinez (Inter)

    In 2023-24: 35 goals, eight assists. Won Copa America, Serie A & Supercoppa Italiana.

    Lautaro Martinez’s career has been defined by his inability to show up in the biggest matches, and it seemed that narrative was set to continue last season after his missed penalty in the shootout condemned Inter to a last-16 exit from the Champions League at the hands of Atletico Madrid.

    However, that proved to be one of very few dark moments for the Argentine over the past 12 months, as he tore up Serie A to fire a dominant Inter to the Scudetto before finally proving himself for his country in a major tournament, as Lautaro scored a Golden Boot-winning five goals at the Copa America – including the extra-time winner in the final as La Albiceleste retained their crown.

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    4Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid)

    In 2023-24: Seven goals, eight assists, 21 clean sheets. Won Euro 2024, Champions League, La Liga & Supercopa de Espana.

    One of the unsung heroes of Real Madrid’s season, Carvajal stepped up at big moments throughout the campaign with key goals and assists while also locking down the right side of defence. No more clear was his impact than when he opened the scoring in the Champions League final to help secure a 15th European Cup for Los Blancos.

    He carried that form into the international arena, too, as he found the net early on at Euro 2024 for Spain before providing a commanding presence during La Roja’s run to the final. Carvajal’s trophy haul will likely skyrocket him up the Ballon d’Or rankings, but the veteran is certainly deserving of recognition given his memorable 12 months.
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    3Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)

    In 2023-24: 27 goals, 17 assists. Won Champions League, La Liga & Supercopa de Espana.

    The best footballer in the world during the first half of the 2023-24 season, Bellingham took to his new surroundings at Real Madrid like no signing since Cristiano Ronaldo. Not only did he score frequently, but he also netted hugely important goals, too.

    The hype around him was tempered somewhat in early 2024, in part due to him missing games through injury and suspension, but he reignited his Golden Ball bid with a tireless performance to help knock Manchester City out of the Champions League before netting his second stoppage-time winner in El Clasico of the season.

    He went on to score two crucial goals for England at Euro 2024, including his last-gasp overhead-kick against Slovakia to keep the Three Lions’ tournament alive in the last 16. Beating Spain in the final would surely have led to a first Golden Ball for Bellingham, but he will likely just have to make do with a place on the podium after Gareth Southgate’s side came up short in Berlin.

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    2Rodri (Manchester City)

    In 2023-24: 12 goals, 15 assists. Won Euro 2024, Premier League, Club World Cup & UEFA Super Cup.

    Until the FA Cup final, it had been over a year since Rodri last tasted defeat inside 90 minutes for Man City, and little illustrated his importance to the team more than the fact that they lost each of the first three Premier League games that he missed in 2023-24.

    He is the best defensive midfielder in the world, and the fact that the Spain international has also developed a habit of popping up with crucial goals and assists – including the strike which sealed the Premier League title for City – means he is catching the eyes of even more fans, and Ballon d’Or voters.

    He may have been forced off at half-time in the Euro 2024 final, but his performances leading into that game still proved enough for him to claim the Player of the Tournament prize. Picking up that award may yet prove enough to tip him over the edge when it comes to claiming the Ballon d’Or, but the competition is fierce.

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    1Vinicius Jr (Real Madrid)

    In 2023-24: 26 goals, 12 assists. Won Champions League, La Liga & Supercopa de Espana.

    Injury meant that Vinicius did not get off to the fast start many might have expected when Karim Benzema left Real Madrid, but after finally shaking off his fitness issues, the winger was back to his best – and them some.

    He netted a hat-trick to help beat Barcelona in the final of the Spanish Super Cup, while he was in fine goal-scoring form in La Liga as Carlo Ancelotti’s side secured the title at home. Perhaps most notably, though, he was the outstanding player in both legs of Madrid’s Champions League semi-final win over Bayern Munich, and he went on to light up Wembley in the final by scoring the second goal in the victory over Borussia Dortmund.

    His summer, however, did not go to plan. Despite scoring twice against Paraguay in the Copa America group stages, Vinicius then picked up a suspension that ruled him out of the Selecao’s quarter-final against Uruguay, and he could only watch from the stands as his compatriots crashed out on penalties.

    Whether that is enough to deny him the Ballon d’Or remains to be seen, but he remains the favourite to claim the Golden Ball on October 28.