Battle of the running mates: JD Vance and Tim Walz skirmish in tense VP debate

WASHINGTON − Forget about asking whether Tim Walz or JD Vance won the vice-presidential debate Tuesday night.

The real question: How did Kamala Harris and Donald Trump fare in it?

That’s because Americans vote for the top of the ticket, whether the bottom of the ticket is a formidable figure (Al Gore, Paul Ryan) or a flawed one (think Sarah Palin). By that measure, the 90-minute encounter on CBS was better for Trump, whose running mate delivered a more coherent version of Trump’s message than Trump himself managed to do at the presidential debate last month.

“I know that a lot of you are worried about chaos in the world and the feeling that the American dream is unattainable,” Vance said near the start, saying the world was calmer and the economy better during Trump’s presidency and blaming Harris for today’s turmoil. He avoided rabbit holes and personal insults.

Who has been the vice president for the last three-and-a-half years?” Vance declared to Walz. “The answer is your running mate, not mine.”

For his part, Walz stumbled a bit on foreign policy at the start, and he was a less confident and fluent speaker than Vance throughout the evening. Vance deliberately projected a more moderate mien than he has in the past, and Walz seemed to struggle to hold Vance accountable for his record and Trump’s.

In the debate’s final question, Walz did find his footing after Vance sidestepped questions about Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the last election, leading to the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol. “Did he lose the 2020 election?” Walz pressed. When Vance dodged the issue again, Walz called it “a damning non-answer” and described Trump as “a threat to our democracy in a way that we have not seen” before.

That said, the evening’s impact on their standings, for better or worse, is politically irrelevant to the contest for the White House. Vance’s favorable rating, which has been low, and Walz’ affability quotient, which has been high, aren’t likely to move the needle in the contest that is essentially tied. The undercard debate never has, not even when a vice-presidential contender clearly prevailed.

Never.

In a sign of the stakes that matter, Vance spent more of his fire targeting Harris as a far-left ideologue than he did Walz − despite the Minnesota governor’s liberal record, ripe with targets. Walz focused on Trump’s record as president and his rhetoric during the campaign and since.

Now a margin-of-error race is hurtling into its final five weeks. Nonpartisan polls nationwide and in seven battleground states show what is by some measures the closest contest in modern times. The RealClearPolitics.com average of recent surveys puts Trump up by a point or two in four of those states (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania) and Harris up by a point or two in the other three (Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin).

What the debate told us about issues that matter

There were moments that illuminated the hurdles ahead for Harris and Trump over the next 34 days.

• • The opening question from moderators Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan mentioned major news that was breaking earlier in the day, including the devastation in the Southeast from Hurricane Helene, the longshoreman’s strike on the East and Gulf coasts, and the escalating violence in the Middle East. That was a reminder of how Harris could be hostage to developments around the world that the Republicans will blame her for, fairly or not.
    • Trump’s anxiety over the abortion issue was underscored when Vance was asked in the debate about access to abortion in the wake of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade. On his social media platform Truth Social, Trump immediately posted his own response in all capital letters, saying for the first time that he would veto a federal abortion ban and that “everyone knows” he doesn’t support a ban.
    • Vance dodged some of the difficult questions involving Trump’s rhetoric and proposals. He didn’t respond when pressed on whether Trump’s proposal for mass deportation of undocumented immigrants would separate adults from their American-born children. He skirted a question about how he would propose providing affordable health care for people with preexisting conditions if the Affordable Care Act was repealed.

ISO white, working-class voters in the Midwest

While tens of millions of people were watching, a prime audience being targeted by both candidates was a narrow one.

That would be white, working-class voters in the upper Midwest, once part of the Democratic coalition and now a key element in Trump’s base. A sweep of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would simplify Harris’ calculus to amass the 270 electoral votes she needs to win. A loss, especially of vote-rich Pennsylvania, would make her path more perilous.

Both candidates managed to mention that they were from the neighborhood, Vance from Ohio and Walz from Minnesota by way of Nebraska. Vance discussed more than once being raised by his grandmother in hardscrabble poverty. Walz recalled riding his bike until dark in the small town where he was reared. “I’m a hunter,” he mentioned in passing in response to a question about gun violence.

Actually, the biggest potential impact of Tuesday’s debate just might be this: If it prompted Trump to change his mind about debating Harris again, to decide that he didn’t want his running mate delivering the last word on the biggest stage available during a campaign. Harris already has accepted, and Trump declined, a CNN invitation to debate on Oct. 23.

Another debate between Trump and Harris before Election Day?

Now, that would be worth scoring.