Distrust in institutions and social polarization one year before elections

With just one year to go until the general elections and months to go until the primary elections, Honduras finds itself mired in a growing distrust of its institutions.

In this environment, where each party is fighting to secure power, the 2025 elections are shaping up to be a high-stakes event.

According to political analyst Luis León , the country faces a worrying lack of democratic education that creates fertile ground for populism and violence.

“We are already seeing palpable political violence. There is insult and a high level of aggression towards women in the political sphere, which will undoubtedly worsen in the next elections,” says León.

“The lack of real proposals and the inability of the candidates turn into attacks and disqualifications,” he says.

Experts predict a cycle of violence that could push Honduras to the brink of governability.

Leadership crisis and empty proposals

In a context where empty promises abound, the strategy of many candidates is reduced to weakening their opponents rather than proposing real solutions.

The country’s major problems – unemployment, insecurity and an education system in crisis – are not reflected in the speeches of those who aspire to lead the country.

As León says, “politicians do not want to propose because they know they do not have the capacity to resolve. They prefer the circus.”

The lack of meaningful proposals and the dirty game of attacks create a hostile environment that, according to Leon, will result in unprecedented political violence next year.

A spiral of violence that does not stop

Nicolás Devia-Valbuena , a program analyst at the United States Institute of Peace, agrees that political confrontation in Honduras has been increasing since 2021.

In the general elections of that year, the National Autonomous University of Honduras (UNAH) documented 64 cases of electoral violence, with 27 murders.

Devia-Valbuena warns that these dynamics are far from resolved and could intensify in the 2025 mega-electoral cycle, where a new president, National Congress, mayors and members of the Central American Parliament will be elected .

“The 2025 elections could become a battlefield where political actors seek to consolidate their power by weakening their opponents as much as possible,” says Devia-Valbuena.

Although a political pact to avoid violence was proposed in 2021, it was ignored by politicians.

The expert suggests that, in addition to formal measures, a change in social values ​​and greater responsibility on the part of leaders towards citizens is necessary.

Social media and misinformation

Electoral violence is not limited to the streets or face-to-face confrontations.

Misinformation and attacks on social media fuel an atmosphere of mistrust and hostility that further polarizes Hondurans.

Fake social media accounts and websites posing as media outlets spread hundreds of inflammatory and misleading messages every day, generating confusion and hostility.

According to Honduras Verifica, in 2021 more than 180 Facebook accounts were detected sharing around 400 disinformation messages every day.

“Online manipulation and disinformation contribute to rising political violence and intolerance,” warns Devia-Valbuena.

Reforms halted

International electoral observation missions have already warned that in order to reduce violence, electoral institutions need to be strengthened and significant reforms made.

However, legislative stalemate prevents the implementation of these recommendations, leaving the country vulnerable to a scenario of increasing conflict.

The reforms include improved voter registration, the independence of electoral institutions and the training of officials in the electoral process.

Furthermore, there is an urgent need to ensure the participation of women and marginalized groups in order to build a more inclusive democracy.

What’s next for Honduras?

With elections just around the corner and deep distrust in institutions, Honduras faces a crossroads.

Experts suggest that unless there is a generational change in political leaders and stronger social responsibility, the country could experience a rise in violence, with serious consequences for its democracy.

“Expecting political parties to change overnight is optimistic at best,” says Devia-Valbuena.

“The path to reducing violence and strengthening democracy requires new leadership and a society that values ​​dialogue and mutual respect.”

As we look to 2025, the future of Honduras hangs in the balance between consolidating a peaceful democracy or falling into a spiral of political violence.

Hondurans will have to decide not only their next leaders, but also the type of country they want to build.