FAST DOWNLOAD
The plans for mass deportations by the future president of the United States, Donald Trump, would have a devastating effect on the country’s economy, due to the weight that undocumented workers have in industries such as construction, according to studies and experts consulted by EFE.
The expulsion of the more than 11 million people living in the US without legal status is one of the ideas on which Trump focused his campaign, stigmatizing undocumented migrants as “criminals” and claiming that they “poison” the country.
In addition to the huge costs to the government and the technical difficulties involved in carrying out this task, the country would face a recession by losing millions of workers, according to a study by the American Immigration Coalition.
The analysis notes that a massive rollout of deportations could result in an annual GDP decline of between 4.2% and 6.8%, equivalent to losses of between $1.1 trillion and $1.7 trillion annually. These figures exceed the impact of the Great Recession of 2007-2009, when GDP fell by 4.3%.
The negative impact would be especially severe in California, Texas and Florida, states that are home to nearly half of the country’s undocumented immigrants and where one in twenty residents could be deported.
These states play key economic roles for the country and by losing a significant portion of their workforce, the local economy could face a major setback.
About 14 percent of construction workers are undocumented, representing more than one million people nationwide, according to a study by the Workers Defense organization.
In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott – a Trump ally – has already said he will collaborate with the federal government on deportation plans, noting that the state “already has the infrastructure in place” to identify, locate and arrest undocumented people.
The construction sector in Texas is a major player, generating $1 in every $20 of the industry’s jobs in the U.S. and relies heavily on undocumented workers.
According to a study by the Workers Defense organization, more than 50% of construction workers in the state do not have legal immigration status in the United States.
Expelling all these workers would “devastate” the industry, Juan Carlos Cerda, director for Texas of the American Business Immigration Coalition, told EFE.
“If the state decides to cooperate, it would be shooting itself in the foot. (…) it would cause projects to slow down and prices to go up,” he said, “when we talk about the Texas miracle, about construction and new industries emerging here, that is only possible thanks to the work of undocumented residents.”
In addition to the economic impact, deportations would have a human impact: in Texas, some 5.6 million people live in “mixed-status” families, where at least one member is not a US citizen.
“Losing immigrant workers in Texas will not only be detrimental to the thriving construction industry, but will also represent a huge loss to the social fabric of our state,” said Christine Bolaños, communications director for Workers Defense Project Texas. EFE
