Five goals in five years: Vinicius Jr must improve his woeful Brazil record or risk World Cup embarrassment in 2026
Despite growing into one of the world's most devastating players at Real Madrid, the winger has failed to replicate that form for his country
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Just over two weeks removed from Real Madrid dramatically boycotting the Ballon d’Or ceremony after it emerged that overwhelming favourite Vinicius Jr had not, in fact, won the award, we now know that the race for the Golden Ball was extremely close. Rodri won by a mere 41 points, which given the points are allocated within France Football’s confusing voting system is about as close as it can get. It now seems even sillier that Los Blancos recused themselves from football’s biggest awards ceremony over such fine margins.
But perhaps there is a lesson to be learned from Vinicius’ second-placed finish. This was an extremely tight decision, and we will never truly know what, exactly, swayed voters to pick Rodri over Vinicius. But a fair guess would be that Spain’s success at Euro 2024 played a pretty big role. Rodri was named Player of the Tournament as La Roja triumphed in Germany, seamlessly transferring his imperious club from Manchester blue to Spain red.
Vinicius summer, meanwhile, did not go as well. There were stretches of the season – certainly the last few months – where you could argue that his club performances were better than Rodri’s. But he was ultimately let down by a fairly morbid showing in a Brazil shirt, which was capped by him being suspended as the Selecao crashed out of the Copa America at the quarter-final stage.
This is nothing new for Vinicius. He is five years into his Brazil career, and three years into being a consistent starter, with 35 caps to now to his name. Over that period, he has found the net just five times – a startlingly poor record for a player of his quality.
Starring for Brazil, then, was not only the missing ingredient from Vinicius’ Ballon d’Or argument, but remains the final boss of his footballing career. He has just over 18 months to figure things out on the international stage, or when the world is watching in 2026, he could be set for more embarrassment on the global stage.
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Getty Images SportMadrid parallels
There are some parallels to be drawn across Vinicius’ club and national-team careers. After moving to Madrid for big money as a teenager in 2018, the winger famously struggled. He was, in fairness, put in a tough spot. Cristiano Ronaldo had left, Gareth Bale was always injured and Eden Hazard, who arrived a year later, was a pale imitation of his former self. Vinicius was expected to immediately step up, but he was also unbelievably raw, and nowhere near refined enough to even be a regular at Santiago Bernabeu.
And of course, he was made to hear it. Madrid fans, for some time, openly loathed him as they grew frustrated with Vinicius’ poor finishing, while Karim Benzema infamously encouraged other Madrid players not to pass the ball to the young Brazilian. A top talent became a laughing stock far too quickly.
Things have since turned around, of course. A Ballon d’Or, even if it wasn’t won this year, is certainly in his future. Despite Kylian Mbappe’s arrival, Vinicius remains the best forward at Madrid, and perhaps, by extension, the most effective attacking player in the world.
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GettySlow Selecao start
Perhaps it is natural, then, that Vinicius would struggle to adapt to a new environment with his national team. That was certainly the case early on. He was called up to three camps to open up his Selecao career, but only appeared once, playing 16 minutes in a loss to Peru in September 2019. He wasn’t entrusted with a start for two years, and didn’t play a full 90 until his ninth cap in November 2021.
Most glaringly, it took him almost three years to find the net for the first time – and even that came in a meaningless game against Chile in which Brazil had already secured the top spot in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying ahead of Qatar 2022. There were some good bits in between, and Vinicius wasn’t necessarily bad in a Brazil shirt for three years. His manager at the time, Tite, also voiced his confidence.
“Obviously, Vinicius has to improve a lot of things, his anxiety when he gets on the ball, his defensive work,” Tite said in 2019. “But his natural talent is greater than these things. You have to understand that we are speaking about a kid of 19 years of age. You have to be careful and you have to work on the emotional part, look after him. Because he has charisma that is second to none.”
The broader issue, though, was that no end product ever really emerged, regardless of the faith that was shown in him.
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Getty ImagesIn Neymar’s shadow
The good news for Vinicius was that he wasn’t expected to be Brazil’s leading light during those early years. That role was left to Neymar. There has been a lot of convenient revisionism around the most-expensive player in the history of the game, but zoom out, and Neymar’s Selecao stats are immense.
In 128 national-team appearances, Neymar has notched 79 goals and 59 assists. He is averaging well over a goal contribution every 90 minutes. No one, not even Pele, has ever found the net more for the Selecao. And even if Neymar has never achieved the kind of success to befit his attacking production, his very presence took the heat off Vinicius. After all, Neymar was the main man, the centre of everything. Stop him – by fair means or foul – and you would likely stop Brazil (something that was proven at the 2014 World Cup).
Vinicius was not the only beneficiary. A litany of attacking players – Rodrygo, Raphinha, Antony and others – all benefitted from the spotlight being shone so brightly on one individual. Their job basically became to do the bits in between and chip in where possible. Very few talked about Vinicius’ lack of output because it was more or less irrelevant.
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GettyNowhere to hide
That all changed just over a year ago. Neymar tore his ACL in a World Cup qualifier against Uruguay last October, and suddenly the onus fell on Vinicius to step up and lead his country. Suddenly, his damning statistics came into sharper focus.
Vinicius started at centre-forward – a massive misuse of his talent – in the next World Cup qualifying fixture. Brazil fell 2-1 to Colombia, and he limped off with a thigh injury after just 27 minutes. He was, therefore, out of action for a heavyweight clash against Argentina, when the Selecao lost a home World Cup qualifying match for the first time ever.
Since then, things have been patchy. Four friendlies after a return to fitness saw mixed results and just one assist. Vinicius was effective against England in March without making any material impact (although he did celebrate feverously with Endrick when the teenager marked his third Brazil appearance with a goal).
Copa America, however, was when things turly turned. Vinicius was expected to come good, find form, and lead his nation to tournament glory (Brazil are, in fairness, expected to win pretty much every game they play). But in the opening group fixture, a 0-0 draw with Costa Rica, he was double-teamed at every possibility. He failed to complete a dribble, had just five touches in the Costa Rica box, and cut a frustrated figure after being substituted on 71 minutes.
Redemption of sorts was achieved to the tune of two goals in the second group game – a 4-0 win over Paraguay – but the third only brought trouble, as a stray elbow that caught the face of Colombia’s James Rodriguez earned Vinicius a suspension for the quarter-final. The Selecao lost to Uruguay without him: Mission failed.
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Getty ImagesRewrite the narrative
So where to go from here? Brazil have turned things around slightly after a dire run under new manager Dorival Jr. Wins against Chile and Peru in the October international window have righted the ship, and momentarily quelled talk that they might not qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Vinicius, though, didn’t play in either fixture after suffering from a back problem. Even if things look momentarily better for the Selecao at large, Vinicius the individual still hasn’t worked it out.
He has, then, just over 18 months to figure out how to replicate his Madrid form in a yellow shirt. By 2026, Brazil, on pedigree alone, will head into the World Cup as one of the favourites. Neymar is unlikely to be back in the fray – further injuries have thrown his career intro jeopardy – while Endrick, should he develop on schedule, will probably still be slightly short of his full potential. There is hope to be found in the emergence of Estevao Willian and Savinho, while Raphinha’s resurgence at Barcelona offers hope of him taking a leading role. But all eyes will almost certainly be on Vinicius amid an expectation of him becoming Brazil’s main man. And it all starts now, with a duo of World Cup qualifying fixtures to try to find form.
The Selecao will likely play around 15 games between now and then, and five years into his international career, Vinicius has to start showing p. Otherwise, this great talent will fall just short of his immense potential – and Brazil might be left to wonder what could have been.
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