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A new phenomenon among American youth could be decisive on November 5 in the United States: women are leaning to the left to support Kamala Harris, while more and more men are turning to the right and will vote for Donald Trump.
Trump, who has met with a range of influencers from the world of kickboxing to cryptocurrency, will travel to Texas to appear on the show of Joe Rogan, a podcaster with millions of followers and particularly popular among young men.
In an extremely close election, the former Republican president is betting on tipping the balance thanks to the growing support of young men, attracted by his sexist politics, his real estate business and his fondness for talking about sports.
Harris will also be in Texas, but to focus her message on young women. Accompanied by pop queen Beyoncé, the vice president will give a speech in defense of abortion rights in a state where some of the most stringent restrictions in the country have been applied.
In September, a Harvard University poll of voters of both sexes between the ages of 19 and 29 found that 70% of women intend to vote for Harris and 23% for Trump. Among young men, the vice president has 53% of voting intentions and the former president 36%.
Another poll published by NBC is more revealing: in the same age group, 59% of women opt for the Democrat and 26% for the Republican. But among young men, the two candidates are almost tied, with 42% for Harris and 40% for Trump.
“I’m concerned about women’s rights and especially health care. They’re already trying to take away our right to abortion, what else can they take away? What’s next?” asks Madeline Tena, an 18-year-old medical student in Arizona.
And her conclusion is clear after following the campaign on TikTok: “I’m going to vote for Kamala because based on what I’ve seen on social media, Kamala seems much better than Trump,” who in her opinion “is really childish.”
Zackree Kline, 21, has already decided that he will vote for Trump because he was good for the country’s economy.
“I know a lot of people are still pro-Trump because everything was cheaper when he was president,” said Kline, who works Monday through Sunday as a waiter and at a funeral home in Pennsylvania to make ends meet.
Chatham University political science professor Jennie Sweet-Cushman sees something deeper: a growing divide among America’s youth over how they view their future.
Women are increasingly graduating from college and are less “susceptible” to the Republican camp, while support for the right among men is increasing.
“When I ask my students if they plan to have children, young men consistently see themselves having children someday. And almost none of the young women” want to, she says.
– Politics and religion –
Several studies show that a growing number of young women are abandoning conservative conceptions about family, couples and sexuality, and are also distancing themselves from religion, in a country where faith and politics can be closely linked.
An April poll by the Survey Center on American Life found that after World War II, men were more likely than women to abandon the religion they were raised in.
In Generation Z, born between the late 1990s and early 2000s, the trend is the opposite: 54% of women have left their religion.
Whether this gender dynamic will be decisive on November 5 is impossible to determine due to the multiple variables in such a close election, in which the vote is indirect and the vote in seven states is key to the outcome.
But one thing is clear: historically, women vote more.
“Women have outnumbered and outvoted men for the past 40 years in American politics. And there is no indication that this will be any different in 2024,” notes Kelly Dittmar, a professor of political science at Rutgers University.