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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are essentially tied as they head into the final stretch of the presidential campaign, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, as the Democratic ticket scrambles to command the strong enthusiasm of Latino and Black voters.
The survey puts Harris at 45%, Trump at 44%, a closer race than the poll found in August. Then, in the wake of the Democratic National Convention, Vice President Harris led the former president by five percentage points, 48% to 43%.
“I’m not too fond of either candidate, but if I have to, I’d vote for Donald Trump,” said Jacob Rossow, 24, a college student from Oklahoma City, saying it had been a difficult decision. He was among those surveyed. “I just feel that he’s been more clear on his policies and what he wants to do. I’m still unsure of Kamala’s plan for the country.”
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cell phone Oct. 14-18, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
By double digits, voters said Harris hadn’t done enough to explain the specific policies she would pursue in office, 57% to 37%. Those who want to hear more include nearly one in four, 23%, of her supporters.
In contrast, those surveyed split evenly, 49% yes to 48% no, on whether Trump had done enough to explain his policies. Just 15% of his supporters want to hear more about what he would do.
In the seven weeks between the two polls, Harris lost ground among Latino voters, who now support Trump by 49% to 38%, and among Black voters. They favor Harris by 72% to 17%, a 55-point advantage that is well below where Democrats traditionally fare.
The margins of error for the small subsamples of Latinos and Black voters are plus or 9 points − a potential shift of up to 18 points one way or the other − and other recent polls show Harris in a stronger position, including a lead among Hispanics.
In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden’s victory relied on overwhelming support from both groups. A Pew Research Center analysis concluded that he was backed by 92% of Black voters and 59% of Latino voters.
But Trump has made a concerted bid for the votes of Hispanic and Black voters, especially men, focusing on issues of the economy and crime. His success at eroding the Democrats’ typical advantage has raised alarm in Harris’ camp and a rebuke on the stump from former president Barack Obama of Black men, who he said might be reluctant to vote for a woman.
Harris, who has been bolstering campaign events and ads targeting Latino and Black voters in swing states, last week released an economic agenda for Black men that included small-business loans and a promise to legalize recreational marijuana use.
The candidates’ standings overall continue to be defined by gender.
Trump leads among men, 53% to 37%, a mirror image of Harris’ lead among women, 53% to 36%.
Who is the change candidate?
The poll had some encouraging findings for Harris.
She now edges Trump, 46% to 44%, as the candidate who would do a better job in bringing about change − a crucial asset given wide dissatisfaction with the country’s direction. She is favored by double digits, 48% to 31%, as the candidate better able to heal the nation’s political divisions.
“I am very much against Trump’s economic concepts of a plan which include tariffs, because I saw the devastation that did to the agricultural community in his first administration,” said Erin Parker, 52, of Tangent, Oregon. A registered Republican who leans independent, she said it was easy to decide to support Harris because she believes Trump’s MAGA movement is “authoritarian” and “not healthy for our country.”
“The fact that she actually has policies − very important,” Parker said.
On issues, Harris holds a 20-point advantage on handling abortion, 56% to 36%, and a 15-point advantage on health care, 54% to 39%.
But Trump edges Harris, 49% to 46%, as the candidate who would do a better job in providing strong leadership.
He continues to be more trusted to handle the economy, the top concern on voters’ minds, by 10 points, 53% to 43%. He is seen as doing a better job on immigration by 51% to 44% and on foreign policy by 51% to 45%.
“We got to get back on the right track for people that can’t afford to buy their groceries; they can’t afford gas in their cars; they’re maxing out their credit cards just to keep their kids fed,” said Pamela Anderson, 78, a Republican and a retiree from Alabama, who supports Trump. “And people living on Social Security − you know, we have an income coming in, but the economy, with the inflation like it is, it is absolutely eaten up.”
‘We have jumped the tracks completely’
Most Americans are downbeat about the nation’s direction. By more than 2 to 1, 61% to 28%, those surveyed say the country “is on the wrong track.” But they disagree on just where they would steer it.
“Absolutely the wrong track − off the rails,” said Rhonda Wax, 63, who works at a travel agency in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. She yearns for the days of Trump’s leadership on the economy and global affairs.
We’re heading in the wrong direction,” agreed Daniel Mori, 45, of New York City. A Republican who works in marketing, he plans to vote for Harris. His biggest concern isn’t the economy or foreign relations. “There is this spiraling situation in which both political parties are pushing in the direction of more division,” he said. “It’s literally, we’re not taking a constructive approach to solving any of the problems in the country.”
There is more angst now than there was four years ago, even as the COVID pandemic was raging. Then, voters who were asked Ronald Reagan’s classic political question − “are you better off than you were four years ago?” − said by 48% to 33% that they were.
That outlook seems sunny compared with today, despite encouraging economic news on jobs and growth. By 44% to 39%, those surveyed in the new poll say they are worse off than they were four years ago.
