FAST DOWNLOAD
Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold a lead over Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump among Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada – two key states that will help determine the 2024 election. But she is seeing an erosion of support among young Latino men, according to two exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls.
More than half – 57% – of Latino voters in Arizona said they plan to vote for or lean toward Harris, while 38% said they lean toward Trump, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely Hispanic voters there. Harris also leads Trump among Latino voters in Nevada, 56% to 40%, the statewide poll of 500 likely Hispanic voters found.
Both polls were conducted in English and Spanish between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2, and have a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points in each state.
Harris and Trump are locked in a razor-thin election, where it will come down to a handful of key states, including Nevada and Arizona. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll in Arizona released last month showed Trump with a 6 percentage point advantage over Harris, though, like most polls, it was within the margin of error.
One in four voters in Arizona and one in five in Nevada is Latino.
A gender gap persists between the two candidates’ backers – with Trump seeing more support among young Latino men under 50, and Harris finding more support from women.
In Arizona, 51% of Latino men ages 18-34 said they support Trump, while 39% of Latino men ages 18-34 support Harris. Among Latino men ages 35-49 in Arizona, 57% said they support Trump compared to 37% who support Harris.
The breakdown was similar in Nevada with 53% of Latino men ages 18-34 supporting Trump and 40% supporting Harris. Those numbers were almost identical for Latino men ages 35-49, 53% for Trump and 39% for Harris.
“He’s America first,” said Yordany Gonzalez, 34, a Las Vegas resident who likes Trump. “I feel like right now, everything should stay in the United States. I disagree with any dollar leaving this country. And if it is leaving this country, then what are you benefiting us?”
Gonzalez, who has lived in Las Vegas since he was 7, after immigrating from Cuba, is registered as a Democrat and voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 out of “loyalty to members of my family.”
“This time around, I’m not doing that because that’s just lying to myself,” he said.
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University Political Research Center, said while it’s good news for Harris that she’s leading with Latino voters in both states, the current margin likely won’t be enough for her to claim victories there.
“It’s only young people and males, but that offset … is the reason why Harris’ numbers are not where they should be (for her to win),” Paleologos said.
Harris’ polling in both states among Latino voters is slightly trailing where Biden was in 2020.
Back then, Biden carried Arizona’s Latinos by 24 percentage points over Trump, 61% to 37%, according to CNN exit polls of the time. Biden had a 26-point lead against Trump among Latinos in Nevada, 61% to 35%, CNN exit polls of the 2020 election said.
Latina women of all ages prefer Harris to Trump. For example, 62% of Latinas ages 18-24 said they support Harris compared to 33% who said they support Trump.
“I appreciate her strive and dedication towards allowing and making women have rights – complete and utter rights – over their own bodies and making their own decisions,” said Celeste Garcia, 22, a life-long Phoenix resident.
With reproductive rights and gun safety (she loves that Harris owns a gun) at the top of her list, it will be Garcia’s first time voting.
“It’s a big responsibility,” she said of voting. “Everyone gets the opportunity to be able to vote when they turn 18, but you’re making such an impact. Even if you’re one person, you’re making an impact and striving for change or consistency or something. And it’s an important part for me.”
Inflation, immigration top policies
Across the two states, Latino voters had two issues at the top of their mind: inflation and immigration.
In Nevada, 37% of Latinos said inflation was their top concern. Immigration was the second top concern at 17%. The extreme partisanship across the country was also a major concern among Latino voters, with 12% saying their top priority is to bring the country together.
Abortion was the fourth top concern for Latinos in Nevada at 8%.
Inflation was the top priority for Latino voters in Arizona at 29%, followed by immigration at 15%. Abortion was the third top concern for Arizona Latinos at 11%. Ten percent said bringing the country together was their top concern.
Harris has made abortion and reproductive rights a cornerstone of her campaign, while Trump typically focuses on immigration.
But the economy is what’s top of mind for many Latinos, especially among the young Latino men who support Trump, the polls showed.
Arturo Munoz, 28, from Phoenix, said his wages were up while in the Army under the Trump administration and praised “everything he did for the blue collar workers.”
Munoz, a registered Independent and truck driver, said he believes Trump will help bring back the economy to be more affordable, something he said he experienced between 2016 and 2020.
“Now it’s just a ridiculous amount of money I’m having to fork out, the amount of times I spend for my family, just to pay for bills,” Munoz said.
Alexander Huerta, 26, of Reno, said the economy is also his top issue. Even as a government state employee making $35 an hour, Huerta said he’s living paycheck to paycheck. He’s concerned with money sent to wars across the globe, instead of keeping those funds in the United States.
“I feel like everything, no matter which topic you want to zoom in on, everything is bad,” he said. “I can’t think of anything that is good right now.”
But some voters are more concerned with what another Trump presidency could mean for the future of the United States.
“It seems like a better option because we’ve tried Trump,” said Daniel Gutierrez, 30, who lives in Las Vegas. “Trump was already a mess. He has other things on his mind that’s not putting the country forward.”
Gutierrez, a registered Independent, said the United States’ standing on the world stage is his top priority in the election. He believes Trump neglected relationships with key allies.
“It cascaded to a point where we’re not being relied on, or no one confides in us anymore to keep our word as a nation, and I feel like we’ve suffered a lot that way,” Gutierrez said.
But more importantly, he believes Harris isn’t just working to be president for herself, but for the people.
“She’s focused on making sure that we have a stable country as well, not just like trying to support herself and make herself better,” he said.
