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From podcast appearances to celebrity endorsements, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have been pulling out all the stops in the final days of the 2024 presidential campaign to woo young voters to the polls.
For Harris, those efforts appear to be working.
The Harvard Youth Poll, published Friday, showed Harris leading Trump nationally by 20 points among registered voters under age 30. Across the seven major swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin – where the race is more competitive, Harris’ lead dropped to 9 points.
The secret to getting young people to vote? Potentially, peer pressure. Those between the ages of 18-29 who believed that their friends planned to vote were more than twice as likely to say they planned to vote themselves, according to the survey.
John Della Volpe, polling director at the Institue of Politics, said in a statement that peer influence, not just the politics of the two candidates, “could determine youth turnout” this election “and ultimately who becomes the next president.”
Young people are expected to play a major role in the outcome of the tightening race for the White House. The election could be decided on razor-thin margins in a handful of states, and turnout among critical demographic groups could make up the difference.
Both Harris and Trump have sought to court young millennial and Gen Z voters in the closing days of the campaign. With appearances at popular fighting matches and on podcasts hosted by the likes of YouTuber Logan Paul, Trump has targeted undecided young men. Harris, meanwhile, has leaned into social media campaigns and endorsements from high-profile celebrities including Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish to increase support among young women.
Those strategies are evident in the stark – and growing – gender gap.
When President Joe Biden was in the 2024 presidential race earlier this year, his lead among young women was nine points higher than among young men. With Harris as the Democratic nominee, the gender gap has increased to 20% points. Harris now leads by 10% points among young men and by a whopping 30% points among young women.
And the gender gap isn’t just in youth. In the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, 53% of women said they backed Harris, while 53% of men said they supported Trump.
According to the Harvard Youth poll, some of the young men who support Trump may be less likely to vote. The survey found that Trump held an 11-point advantage among young men who were less likely to vote, where Harris lead among likely male voters.
The poll was conducted between Oct. 3 and 14 and surveyed 2,001 Americans from ages 18 to 29. The margin of error among the total sample was +/- 2.64%. It rose to +/- 3.05% when looking specifically at registered voters, and +/- 3.61% on questions examining likely voters.
