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Democrats and the independents who caucus with them enjoy a 51-49 seat advantage in the U.S. Senate.
In November, Republicans have 11 held seats up for election while Democrats must protect 23. Based on that alone, Republicans have a tremendously favorable electoral map to take the Senate majority.
Here’s a breakdown of the most competitive races without all the political fluff.
Cruz must win Texas for the GOP to take the senate
Texas: Republican Sen. Ted Cruz needs to win reelection for the GOP to take the Senate majority. The main problem is Republicans think Texas is a lock, and it simply isn’t. The Cook Political Report ranked the state as a R+5 in 2022, which makes it less of a certainty than Ohio.
Cruz has taken the race seriously and outraised Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred by nearly $21 million. But if Democrats take this seat, there’s a good chance they’ve won control of Congress and the White House.
Opinion:Progressives hate Ted Cruz. But he’s proved he’s the right senator for Texas.
Montana: Republicans have an excellent shot of picking up the West Virginia seat vacated by retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, who switched from the Democratic Party to being an independent in June. If Republicans want the Senate majority, though, the path goes through Montana.
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester must defend his seat in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992. GOP businessman Tim Sheehy leads Tester in polling. This will be a bellwether race on election night.
Sen. Sherrod Brown faces Trump-backed Bernie Moreno
Ohio: The state is definitely trending Republican, but it’s very much blue-collar. Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, has wisely campaigned as a champion of the working class.
Trump-backed businessman Bernie Moreno has made the interesting choice of holding his campaign cash until the end of the race when more voters are paying attention. As a result, Brown was the main candidate on the airwaves for much of the summer. We’ll see in November whether the strategy will pay off for Moreno.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin squares off with banking executive Eric Hovde.
This is about as evenly split as any state could be. Hovde is bringing independents into his camp, and Baldwin’s career in politics may weigh her down as voters up for grabs give the edge to a political outsider.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers challenges Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan
Michigan: Former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican, takes on Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin for an open Senate seat. Michigan has not elected a Republican senator in 30 years, so this is an uphill battle.
Due to Michigan’s significant Arab American population, this race may turn on Rogers’ staunch support of Israel versus Slotkin’s more moderate approach. Rogers’ $5.5 million in campaign fundraising also pales in comparison with Slotkin’s $24.1 million.
Opinion:Trump has a great chance of winning Michigan. His Detroit speech highlighted why.
Pennsylvania: In the 2022 election, Republican David McCormick lost the Senate primary to Dr. Mehmet Oz by fewer than a thousand votes.
This time, McCormick successfully secured the GOP nomination to challenge Sen. Bob Casey, the Democratic incumbent, a well-known politician with plenty of campaign cash. The formula for McCormick is simple: He must win enough rural and suburban support to offset the deep blue strongholds of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
Nevada: Veteran and Purple Heart recipient Sam Brown challenges Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen.
Brown has a great story, but recent polling suggests that the Republican is falling significantly behind Rosen. Being outraised by more than $22 million certainly doesn’t help.
Arizona’s Kari Lake is a self-inflicted wound for Republicans
Arizona: Republican voters nominated Kari Lake even after her failed bid for governor. This is a self-inflicted wound in a seat that Republicans should have been able to win.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has a polling lead over Lake that seems it will hold. Don’t be surprised here if the Senate and presidential vote split. If Lake wins, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump and Republicans are having a HUGE election night.
Maryland: The fact that Republicans have a chance in this race is a testament to the candidate quality of former Gov. Larry Hogan. He knows Maryland and is running a much different campaign than most Republicans. Notably, he supports abortion rights and refuses to embrace Trump. His opponent, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, is a formidable challenger. This one is a stretch for the GOP, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
The presidential race remains too close to call. Controlling the Senate is critical if Republicans want to either check a potential Harris administration or advance Trump’s priorities.
Democrats lead Republicans in fundraising. They might lose Senate control anyway.
The main difference in these close races may turn out to be the cash advantage for Democrats.
With the notable exception of Cruz, Democrats have absolutely torched Republicans with their ability to raise money. Overall, this cycle Democratic Senate candidates have raised $632 million and Republicans have raised $373.
Nevertheless, Republicans only need to hold Texas and flip West Virginia and Montana to gain control. Barring any last-minute surprises, the GOP has the inside track to secure the majority.
