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A small number of Russians attempted to protest in the early days of the war, holding “No to War” signs and demanding the government stop the invasion.
Ivan Preobrazhensky is a dissident Russian political analyst. In 2014, he emigrated from Russia to the Czech Republic, the day after Vladimir Putin signed the decree on the annexation of Crimea to Russia. When asked whether the population could revolt against Putin, his opinion is very enlightening:
“The government responded by cracking down on protests and continues to crack down on opponents of the war, and the number of people willing to protest is extremely small. Ukrainians first incited Russians to take to the streets en masse. Today, with the average Russian citizen accustomed to the war, it is no longer a reason for protest. Some thought that repression might become the trigger, pushing people to protest when they have no other choice.”
According to Preobrazhensky, a revolution in Russia is possible only under specific conditions:
“As we can see, Russian society swallows seemingly intolerable things again and again. Social explosions occur when, often for obscure reasons or unpredictable coincidences, a so-called “collective action point” appears. Suddenly, many people realize that they can influence what is happening here and now.
“It’s not because things are so bad that they can no longer live and rush under a tank. This happens when they suddenly have hope, even a small one, that they can stop the tank. Such moments usually occur when there is a disconnection between the political power and the security forces, and the latter take a break and do not fulfill their duties,” Mr. Preobrazhensky concludes.
