FAST DOWNLOAD
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has stretched his betting lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris as the 2024 White House race enters its home stretch.
Trump’s lead comes after a slew of cancelled media interviews and a Univision town hall where he again embraced the Jan. 6 insurrection, calling it a “day of love,” and repeating falsehoods about migrants in Springfield, Ohio that led to violent threats.
Democrats have been raising questions about Trump’s age and behavior during his rallies, including at a town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania, that was interrupted by medical emergencies in the audience. On Saturday, Trump fixated on the male anatomy of late golf legend Arnold Palmer during a speech in western Pennsylvania.
The Harris campaign has said Trump is too old and unstable to hold office, echoing the calls that eventually led President Joe Biden to drop out of the race.
Trump’s lead in the action, which U.S. bookmakers cannot legally take part in, is the largest since Harris entered the race in late July.
Presidential betting odds timeline
Presidential betting odds as of 10/21
Bet 365
- Donald Trump: -163
- Kamala Harris: +130
via Covers.com
Bovada
- Donald Trump: -160
- Kamala Harris: +135
BetOnline
- Donald Trump: -155
- Kamala Harris: +135
Oddschecker
- Donald Trump: -143
- Kamala Harris: +150
Large bets raise questions at prediction market
Four mystery accounts in recent weeks have collectively pumped $30 million in crypto bets on Trump winning the election, according to a Wall Street Journal report, raising questions about a popular prediction market’s rapid shift toward a Trump victory.
Polymarket – a betting site often touted by billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk – has gone from posting roughly even odds of a Harris or Trump victory just two weeks ago to giving Trump a 62% chance and Harris a 38% chance.
The surge has coincided with $30 million in Trump bets from four Polymarket accounts — redi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie. Each account was funded by deposits from the same U.S. crypto exchange called Kraken, according to Arkham, a firm that analyzes blockchain and crypto activity.
Miguel Morel, founder of Arkham, told the WSJ: “There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity.”
Although not illegal, or necessarily nefarious, the WSJ reported that some observers see the bets as part of an influence campaign to generate social media buzz and the perception that Trump is ahead.
The election forecast web site FiveThirtyEight – which relies on a model based on polls – gave Trump a slight edge Sunday, with a 52% chance compared to Harris’ 48% chance, to win the election.
