Trump gains ground on Harris and the elections are shaping up to be the closest of the century
Trump has a slight lead over Harris and has a 52% chance of winning the election.
FAST DOWNLOAD
Washington, (EFE).- Republican candidate for the White House, former President Donald Trump , has gained ground in the polls against his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the elections on November 5 are shaping up to be the closest of the last century in the United States.
Harris, who replaced President Joe Biden after he threw in the towel in July, initially sparked great enthusiasm that carried over into the polls, but Trump has managed to pulverize that advantage with 16 days to go until the election.
According to the latest forecast from the FiveThiryEight website based on the average of polls published nationally and in key states, Trump has a slight lead over Harris and has a 52% chance of winning the November 5 election.
Although the Democrat leads the voting intention at the national level, the Republican is more favored by the Electoral College, the system by which the states award a certain number of electoral votes to the winning candidate.
Two weeks ago, the same portal’s forecast gave Harris a 58% chance of defeating Trump.
The difference between Harris and Trump
Although the Republican has gained ground in recent weeks, the situation is so tight that the probability of victory for each of the two candidates is practically equivalent to a coin toss.
Moreover, at the national level, the vice president only has a two-point lead over the former president, a difference narrower than the margin between Biden and Trump on any day of the 2020 campaign.
In 2000, the outcome of the election was up in the air until the Supreme Court ruled that Republican George W. Bush would win over Democrat Al Gore in Florida, then a swing state.
But according to the FiveThirtyEight website, to find an election as close as the polls show, you have to go back to 1876, when Republican Rutherford Hayes defeated Democrat Samuel Tilden by a single electoral vote: 185 to 184.
Every vote counts
In such a tight scenario, every vote counts and both candidates are doubling their presence in the seven decisive states, where in some cases early voting has already begun with high turnout.
The rhetoric and crossfire between the two sides has also intensified with attacks and insults.
Trump suggested this week that he would be willing to deploy the military against America’s “internal enemies,” in an apparent reference to his political rivals, while Harris called her rival “fascist” and “unhinged.”
The Republican is in Pennsylvania on Sunday, where he is expected to visit a McDonald’s and accuse Harris of having made up a story that he worked for the fast food chain as a young man.
The Democratic candidate, who turns 60 today, is in Georgia before traveling to Pennsylvania, where she will campaign tomorrow with Liz Cheney, a former Republican congresswoman who is at odds with Trump.
