Trump’s return to the White House, a disturbing scenario for Sheinbaum’s Mexico

The return to the White House of former US President Donald Trump (2017-2021) is a realistic and disturbing possibility for the new Mexican government of Claudia Sheinbaum , especially after the Republican suggested renegotiating the T-MEC free trade agreement.

Americans will choose on November 5 between a continuist administration led by Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and the political return of Trump, who has coined strong protectionist and anti-immigrant rhetoric.

Reopen the trade agreement

During his first term, the New York magnate forced the replacement of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the current United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and last week he revealed his intention to activate the review of the agreement in 2026.

Sheinbaum, who succeeded her mentor, leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, as president on October 1, attributed that comment to “stridency” typical of an electoral campaign and expressed her conviction that she could reach agreements with either Trump or Harris.

But for Martha Bárcena, former ambassador of the López Obrador government during Trump’s term (2018-2021), the Republican’s reelection “would present greater challenges for Mexico because his positions are more extreme” and his negotiating style usually seeks to have “a clear winner and a clear loser.”

In 2023, Mexico became the United States’ largest trading partner, surpassing China, which explains the importance of the USMCA for both countries.

A new Republican administration would focus on curbing growing Chinese investment in some sectors of Mexico, such as the automotive industry, predicts Christopher Landau, former Trump administration ambassador to Mexico (2019-2021).

The United States “cannot allow China to take advantage of the free market in North America,” the diplomat told EFE.

The border, at the center of tension

Beyond the USMCA, Trump has focused his campaign primarily on a harsh speech against migration.

The Republican, who in 2019 threatened Mexico with tariffs if it did not stop migration flows, promises to resume construction of the border wall, carry out mass raids and deportations and reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” program for asylum seekers to wait on the Mexican side of the border.

Landau agrees that there is an urgent need to change border policy and believes that it would be the priority issue for Trump’s second term above all others: “We can’t talk about redecorating the living room when we have a fire in the kitchen,” he explains.

During the Biden administration, border crossings have increased, peaking at more than two million in 2023, although the arrival of migrants has decreased in recent months due to new restrictions on asylum applications.

For Bárcena, the Republicans “do not understand the need that the American economy has for migrants” and, although she believes that Trump would not be able to implement many of his proposals, it would cause a “feeling of uncertainty” in the foreign community.

The proliferation of fentanyl trafficking has also led to a hardening of the Republicans’ discourse on security, with some calling for the United States to bomb the cartels on Mexican territory, an insurmountable red line for the Latin American country.

Mexico insists that the United States must address its domestic drug problem and also curb the trafficking of American weapons that end up in the hands of drug traffickers.

Friends again?

During Trump’s term, the two countries were able to overcome some obstacles thanks to the good personal harmony that the Republican and López Obrador forged against all odds.

The two connected because they shared a critical character with traditional politicians, recalls Landau, who believes that the relationship with Sheinbaum could also be good because it “suits” both countries.

Bárcena, however, has doubts that Trump would respect Mexico’s first female president: “His relationship with female leaders was never exemplary.”