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Well, that wasn’t supposed to happen. Inter Miami were supposed to make easy work of Atlanta United Saturday, beat the Black and Red on the road, and give themselves two-plus weeks of rest before returning to action for the Eastern Conference semifinals. At which point they would, presumably, stroll through the rest of the playoffs, ease past everyone else, win their first MLS Cup, and allow Lionel Messi to get his hands on trophy number 47.
Of course, soccer is rarely that simple.
The jeopardy in this sport comes from an inherent uncertainty. And despite Miami’s glittering regular season, there is always a chance – in MLS, at least – that something could go wrong. Still, despite those caveats, Tata Martino’s side really should be making this a whole lot easier. After beating Atlanta in the first game, they lost the second – and never really looked convincing over the course of 90 minutes.
Instead, this looked like an outfit searching for answers, stretched thin on the road, and, ultimately, uncertain in an atmosphere that was far more hostile than some might have expected (even the pink Messi shirts that dotted parts of Mercedes-Benz stadium were drowned out by the Black and Red of the home support.)
And so this will need a Game 3 to settle things, the full might of MLS’s oft-maligned playoff structure used in full. Miami will still be favorites here, but there are some serious questions to be asked, as a team that looked so dominant in the regular season are showing an air of vulnerability when the stakes are at their highest.
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GettyWhere are you, Leo?
For some time, as the Lionel Messi-Cristiano Ronaldo debate raged on through social media forums and in bars around the world, Messi was regarded as a player who couldn’t do it in big moments. And his knockout record, in some senses, backed up that thinly veiled argument. He didn’t win a major trophy for Argentina until he was 34, while he had to constantly watch from Catalonia and Paris as Real Madrid collected Champions League trophies. Messi didn’t necessarily disappear in big games, but his ability to carry a side when everything is on the line had to be questioned.
That rhetoric has largely disappeared – not least because Messi has now won everything in this sport, and was majestic in Argentina’s World Cup triumph in 2022. But those struggles in big games have started to appear again recently. Messi was woeful during the Copa America knockout phase for Argentina, scoring once in elimination play and watching from the sidelines once he got injured as Lautaro Martinez secured the cup for the Albiceleste. And in this series, his impact has been minimal.
Messi may have assisted Jordi Alba’s crucial winner in Game 1, but a look at the play itself. It was a 10-yard roll to a player who smashed one in from 20 yards – showed that he had little involvement in actual chance creation. Otherwise, Messi has struggled to make a material impact. Sure, his chance creation numbers and pass completion percentages are as admirable as ever, but that crucial element – seeing the ball hit the back of the net – is lacking.
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GettyThe loss of Busquets
There are some issues further back, too. The absence of Sergio Busquets from Game 2 was always going to be cause for some concern. The former Barca man has been crucially versatile for Martino this season – splitting time between a defensive midfield and center back position. He may be aging, and this may be a different league, but the metronomic presence still looks every bit the perfect tempo-setter.
Miami might have looked two ways without Busquets, who missed Sunday’s game due to illness. There was a school of thought that having Busuqets out would allow the Herons’ younger, more athletic midfielders to fly around the center of the park. This was, in theory, a team that could press higher, move the ball quicker, and hit the home side on the break. Instead, everything was simply too frantic. Martino deployed a back three, with a Federico Redondo-Yannick Bright pivot manning the middle.
And they were both outnumbered and outthought, with Atlanta’s more energetic and controlled three-man setup proving too much for the young duo. Dax McCarty played the “Busquets role” perfectly for Atlanta, offering vital calm at the base of midfield, while Bartosz Slisz and Ajani Fortune buzzed around in front of him. Miami didn’t lose too many duels, but they didn’t really stamp their authority, either. Bright played just one pass into the final third. His replacement, highly regarded U.S. prospect Benjamin Cremaschi was more advanced, but slightly wayward in his pass accuracy.
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ImagnChance creation woes
Can Miami really take much of the blame for Brad Guzan turning into something resembling prime Manuel Neuer in Game 1? The veteran goalkeeper, rumored with an exit from Atlanta at the start of the year, turned in the performance of a lifetime in a 2-1 loss, making eight saves and bursting out of his box to constantly deny Miami counters. It might have been three or four had Guzan not kept his side in it.
But in game two, Guzan didn’t have to provide such heroics. It was, in fact, his blunder that gifted Miami their only goal. Without his ill-advised punt attempt, which Redondo nicked and turned into an open net, Miami would have finished the game with just one shot on target. They may have had more of the ball, and a higher xG, but the Herons never really threatened in Game 2. There is, indeed, a difference between creating chances, and having good looks on goal. Limiting Messi and Suarez to a combined two “big chances” and just 17 touches in the Atlanta box is a fine mark.
And then, outside of the statistics, there are the vibes of it all. Some passes were made too late. Others weren’t played at all. The body language suggested annoyance. Martino backed that up. “We wanted everything to finish [Saturday], but I am satisfied with how they played, but frustrated with the result,” he said after the game.
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ImagnWill it all work out anyway?
And what, exactly, can Martino do here? Miami’s injury list is concerning. Suarez looks exhausted, Messi isn’t firing, Busquets’ status for Game 3 is, at this point, unknown. There isn’t much room for tactical tweaks, or outright innovation to turn the season around.
But Miami have shown repeatedly that they can embrace adversity throughout the campaign. Things were supposed to collapse when Messi and Suarez left for Copa America – and Busquets was forced to play center back. Instead, Miami won seven of eight. And even when Messi was out with a high ankle sprain, they continued to chug along. This is a team that won the Supporters’ Shield with relative ease, broke the MLS points record, and routinely beat the other best sides in the league. Yes, there are flaws and reasons for concern. But – statistically at least – this is the best side that MLS has ever seen, carried by the best player the game has ever seen.
That really should be enough…unless it’s not. MLS fans will find out this weekend.
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